Bigger than Halo? (Destiny)

by narcogen , Andover, Massachusetts, Friday, August 01, 2014, 19:23 (3557 days ago) @ electricpirate

No matter who you are, new IP is hard, and hitting square between console generations is hard. I mean, do we compare Destiny's first release sales with the first Halo's sales as a new IP (~7 mil), or with the high water mark of Halo 3? (~11 mil)

If destiny hits 10 million in it's first iteration it will be a pretty huge success, as it will have a ton of room to grow. If it hits the high end of the scale at 20 million for a new IP it will be basically unprecedented.

If it did half as well on Xbox 360 as Halo 3 did-- at a time when there are as many or more active 360 users than there were when Halo 3 launched-- that would be 5.5M right there. I'm willing to bet it will do better than that.

Let's say it does half as well as that again on PS3-- just as big an installed base, if not bigger, but fewer people who know and love Bungie. So another 2.25M.

There still aren't that many of the new consoles out. Let's be conservative and say half a million each and change-- that rounds up the total to 9M.

I honestly find it hard to imagine doing MUCH worse than that. Even if we assume that every single preorder Beta code was used, that's 1.5M preorders. I'm willing to bet there are more than that-- I don't think all 3 codes per preorder got used.