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How many are going for the PS3 version? (Destiny)

by SIX min WHISTLE @, Michigan, Wednesday, August 27, 2014, 14:52 (3530 days ago)

I'm not going to be able to upgrade to a PS4 for a couple months still. My plan in this situation has been to get the 360 version, but with the exclusive stuff being locked away for a full year (Timed exclusive until at least Fall 2015 according to the new video), AND characters only transferring within the same ecosystem, I think the argument for PS3 could be made now.

The stickied spreadsheet has almost no one going for PS3, though usually that kind of stuff gets outdated. I'm just wondering if anyone has changed their minds or never added themselves to the sheet. I figure most BOrgers that haven't upgraded will stick to 360, so I don't want to bother with a ghost town.

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How many are going for the PS3 version?

by Cody Miller @, Music of the Spheres - Never Forgot, Wednesday, August 27, 2014, 16:49 (3530 days ago) @ SIX min WHISTLE

The stickied spreadsheet has almost no one going for PS3, though usually that kind of stuff gets outdated. I'm just wondering if anyone has changed their minds or never added themselves to the sheet. I figure most BOrgers that haven't upgraded will stick to 360, so I don't want to bother with a ghost town.

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Taken from a reddit survey, it looks like not very many people are opting for the PS3 version. The real numbers are similar. The only reason I'd go with ps3 is so when you get a ps4, your guardian transfers over.

Looking at all the figures for preorders and the like, it's something like <15% playing on last gen.

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How many are going for the PS3 version?

by SIX min WHISTLE @, Michigan, Wednesday, August 27, 2014, 17:03 (3529 days ago) @ Cody Miller

Alright, some info to work with at least. Even if such a small percent are on current gen, it seemed like there were more populated everything on 360, and definitly more friends.

Sucks that I'll have to start over on PS4, but not that big a deal. I wish they made the save import work across platforms like GTA is doing, but the multi-game character transfer for future games must have killed it.

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How many are going for the PS3 version?

by Xenos @, Shores of Time, Wednesday, August 27, 2014, 17:33 (3529 days ago) @ SIX min WHISTLE

Alright, some info to work with at least. Even if such a small percent are on current gen, it seemed like there were more populated everything on 360, and definitly more friends.

Sucks that I'll have to start over on PS4, but not that big a deal. I wish they made the save import work across platforms like GTA is doing, but the multi-game character transfer for future games must have killed it.

From early press it actually sounded like there might be one way current gen import cross platform. This of course would also technically make it a cross platform past gen import, but it would only be one way, so I'm not sure how it would work, but it was quotes like this that made me think it might be possible:

“We’re interested in making sure that last gen character can move to next gen. A lot of people are going to buy Destiny on PS3 or Xbox 360 and then get a PS4 for Christmas. Don’t tell me I wasted those last 100 hours there. So we’re really interested in supporting that. Our longer-term platform plans, I couldn’t speak to right now. But we don’t want to lock people in.” - Tyson Green

Might be a good question for one of the last two mail sacks before launch.

How many are going for the PS3 version?

by Veegie, Wednesday, August 27, 2014, 21:14 (3529 days ago) @ Xenos

You're free to use the same Guardians across both generations, as long as it's within the same company (Microsoft / Sony).
If you finish a game your Xbox One version, it should only take a few seconds before you can login with your recent changes on your Xbox 360 version.

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Some math.

by narcogen ⌂ @, Andover, Massachusetts, Thursday, August 28, 2014, 03:51 (3529 days ago) @ Cody Miller

Taken from a reddit survey, it looks like not very many people are opting for the PS3 version. The real numbers are similar. The only reason I'd go with ps3 is so when you get a ps4, your guardian transfers over.

Looking at all the figures for preorders and the like, it's something like <15% playing on last gen.

How does that figure?

The installed base of the 360 and PS3 combined right now is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 200M.

The PS4 just hit 10M and is doing better than the Xbox One, at least worldwide if not also in the US at this point. Let's call that another 10M just to be on the safe side.

That's 100M consoles last gen, 20M this gen (optimistically). So there's a ratio of about 10:1 for the last generation compared to the current generation.

Perhaps preorders skew towards the next gen as a percentage of all expected sales, but it's hard to see Destiny hitting the kind of sales figures that have been talked about for the Halo franchise (or up to twice that, given the expanded platform availability) without some really insane attach rate on next gen if only 15% of those sales are coming from the last generation of hardware.

I think the original Halo's attach rate was close to 50%, in part because it was a first party launch title.

To sell, say, 10M copies while getting only 1.5M from the 200M owners of PS3 and Xbox 360 means getting 8.5M in sales from 20M next gen consoles. That's an attach rate of 42% (average for both next gen platforms) for something that's not a launch title or an exclusive for either platform-- although to be honest, Sony continues to promote the game as if it was an exclusive, and Microsoft continues to let them do it.

To sell 20M copies-- which would not seem unreasonable, that's double what Halo titles get which are only ever out on one company's platform, current gen only-- that would require a next-gen attach rate of over 80%, which I'm guessing is probably unheard of for any franchise on any platform that doesn't include the name "Mario" in it.

It'll be interesting to see if Bungie's 360-owning following gives the new title a boost on either of Microsoft's platforms or not.

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Some math.

by uberfoop @, Seattle-ish, Thursday, August 28, 2014, 08:53 (3529 days ago) @ narcogen

How does that figure?

The installed base of the 360 and PS3 combined right now is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 200M.

Not quite 200M; late last year the 360 wasn't even to 80 million sell-throughs, the PS3 was pretty near, and these consoles have had reduced sales since XB1/PS4 launched.

Game sales potential on PS360 is nowhere near what that number suggests, though. Some units no longer work, some people own multiples, some people have old hardware but no longer buy (or play) on it. The launch of the new generation has had a big impact here; PS4/XB1 versions appear to significantly discourage people from buying PS360 versions of cross-gen games.

The PS4 just hit 10M and is doing better than the Xbox One, at least worldwide if not also in the US at this point.

The PS4 is ahead even in the US. The front-loaded fanbase, and Microsoft's generally good holiday performance, allowed XB1 to slightly edge out PS4 last December. But the PS4 has sold more units every other month.

Sony continues to promote the game as if it was an exclusive, and Microsoft continues to let them do it.

Sony cut a marketing deal with Activision for Destiny. IIRC, it's the same reason (with Microsoft instead of Sony) that Call of Duty has at times seemed like an Xbox title.

This is why...

It'll be interesting to see if Bungie's 360-owning following gives the new title a boost on either of Microsoft's platforms or not.

...some people are predicting that Destiny will cause a large spike in PS4 sales, much moreso than other platforms.

It's definitely strange, though. Unless the attach rate on existing users is absurd, Destiny is going to have to sell large numbers of PS4s and XB1s.

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Some math.

by narcogen ⌂ @, Andover, Massachusetts, Friday, August 29, 2014, 08:25 (3528 days ago) @ uberfoop

How does that figure?

The installed base of the 360 and PS3 combined right now is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 200M.


Not quite 200M; late last year the 360 wasn't even to 80 million sell-throughs, the PS3 was pretty near, and these consoles have had reduced sales since XB1/PS4 launched.

Granted, but you can call it 150M easily and that's still almost ten times that of the next-gen consoles.


Game sales potential on PS360 is nowhere near what that number suggests, though. Some units no longer work, some people own multiples, some people have old hardware but no longer buy (or play) on it. The launch of the new generation has had a big impact here; PS4/XB1 versions appear to significantly discourage people from buying PS360 versions of cross-gen games.

It'd have to be a lot more than "nowhere near" to make the potential as low as that of the next-gen, though. You'd have to be talking about 2/3 to 3/4 of those units broken, dupes, or backups. Even if EVERY owner of a next gen console ALSO owns at least one last gen, that's still only a fraction of overlap. If every next gen owner owns a last gen console that is gathering dust, that still means that there are still another 130M last gen consoles out there. Let's say half of those are broken, or aren't seeing any new purchases-- fine, now it's 60M. That's still three times as many next gen consoles are out there!

The PS4 just hit 10M and is doing better than the Xbox One, at least worldwide if not also in the US at this point.


The PS4 is ahead even in the US. The front-loaded fanbase, and Microsoft's generally good holiday performance, allowed XB1 to slightly edge out PS4 last December. But the PS4 has sold more units every other month.

Sony continues to promote the game as if it was an exclusive, and Microsoft continues to let them do it.


Sony cut a marketing deal with Activision for Destiny. IIRC, it's the same reason (with Microsoft instead of Sony) that Call of Duty has at times seemed like an Xbox title.

The deal explains why Sony spends money advertising and promoting Destiny on Sony hardware.

It does not explain why Microsoft does not spend money advertising and promoting Destiny on MS hardware as they do for other third party titles that are not necessarily exclusives.

Usually there's at least a minimum of "me, too" marketing so that the audience knows a title is NOT an exclusive. Microsoft's silence about the title is deafening, and I think it's because it is a direct threat to the Halo franchise-- and quite predictably so!


This is why...

It'll be interesting to see if Bungie's 360-owning following gives the new title a boost on either of Microsoft's platforms or not.


...some people are predicting that Destiny will cause a large spike in PS4 sales, much moreso than other platforms.

It's definitely strange, though. Unless the attach rate on existing users is absurd, Destiny is going to have to sell large numbers of PS4s and XB1s.

Out of the three possibilities, it is far more likely that Destiny would sell far more on last gen than is expected, if not more than on next-gen, or would miss its high sales targets altogether. I think Destiny may move some 360 owners into the PS4 camp, but because there is a 360 release, they don't have to make that move now-- they can make it for the sequel, which is probably what I will end up doing.

Some math. - Case in point

by yakaman, Friday, August 29, 2014, 11:32 (3528 days ago) @ narcogen

Out of the three possibilities, it is far more likely that Destiny would sell far more on last gen than is expected, if not more than on next-gen, or would miss its high sales targets altogether. I think Destiny may move some 360 owners into the PS4 camp, but because there is a 360 release, they don't have to make that move now-- they can make it for the sequel, which is probably what I will end up doing.

I'm getting an XBox One in a few weeks. Originally, this was going to be for Destiny. However, one of my friends played the beta with me on 360 and loved it, which in turned sparked the interest of two of our other friends. However, they are all still going to be on 360 for a while.

So, from one interested party (me) we have +4 XBox360 versions, and -1 XBoxOne versions.

Just one case, obviously, but I think it speaks to your point.

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this is only in regards to your comment about MS marketing

by kidtsunami @, Atlanta, GA, Tuesday, September 02, 2014, 05:19 (3524 days ago) @ narcogen

As someone who owns an XB1 and a PS4 (well sold my PS4, will pick it up again soon) I've seen plenty of marketing from both sides. Now if you're talking about conference appearances, those usually go to one of the consoles, not both.
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