So did anybody ever figure out how "Smart loot" works?

Ran NM Crota 3 times today with randoms from LFG sites. 2 of the three only rewarded me with shards on killing Crota. The other drop was a swordbreaker.

I have a feeling the answer is going to be no, but I'll ask anyway: Have I just been really unlucky during the last few weeks, or is there some condition I can satisfy to coax the game into dropping (normal mode) raid weapons more frequently? Deleting Shaders, Vaulting raid weapons, anything like that? Is the "smart loot" system working against me?

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I have no hard data, but my anecdotal personal experience is that "smart loot" doesn't appear to work particularly well. In all my Crota normal mode runs (close to 30 at this point) I've received 1 black hammer, 1 sword breaker, 6 hunger of Crotas, 5 light of the abyss, and 8 song of ir yuts. Keep in mind that my 1 black hammer didn't drop until about 2 weeks ago.
I know a certain amount of randomness will always be present in Destiny's drops, but they do seem almost mockingly frustrating at times. Whatever differences are present behind the scenes, I find the randomness of the drops to be pretty much the same.

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But I've never even wanted one, so I'm not bummed. :P

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But I've never even wanted one, so I'm not bummed. :P

I'm sorry, I had something crazy in my ear. Could you say that again?

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But I've never even wanted one, so I'm not bummed. :P

I'm sorry, I had something crazy in my ear. Could you say that again?

;p

I've never had a Krabby Patty!

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...And 3 Swordbreakers...

And nothing else has dropped from Normal Crota for me except his spaceship once (which is cool, I like the ship).

Hardmode Crota is much more generous.

Honestly, I believe "smart loot" is code for "you're very slightly more likely to get raid loot than shards." It's not actually looking at your gear and dropping things you need.

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Honestly, I believe "smart loot" is code for "you're very slightly more likely to get raid loot than shards." It's not actually looking at your gear and dropping things you need.

Pretty much. I don't recall Bungie ever saying that it would consider which individual items you'd gotten. What they did say was that it would consider how long it'd been since you got a "fun" drop (which I took to mean weapons or armor) so that streaks of just getting shards/energy wouldn't go on for as long. That's all.

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2 HM Crota runs and I had all the primaries. I got the armor pieces I was missing reasonably quickly.

That said, I didn't get the fusion rifle for about 8 weeks of 3 clears.

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I have 37 full crota runs on normal and hard, along with numerous partial runs. This has netted me:

4 Black Hammers
4 Oversoul Edicts
4 Abyss Defiants
2 Word of Crotas
2 light of the Abyss fusion rifles
1 sword breaker
3 Hunger of Crotas
3 fangs of ir yute scout rifles
2 songs of ir yute MGs
1 crux
4 helmets
9 arms
3 boots
5 chests
3 bone circlets
2 capes
1 dishtowel

6 Dragon's breath
5 No land Beyond
3 MIDA multitool
1 Truth
1 normal mode ship

Note, I have gotten zero hard mode ships or speeders. In contrast that is all I ever get from the Vault of Glass.
Smart loot doesn't seem to be very active to me, mostly because the exotics I get from the raid tend to repeat very consistently. It still seems better then the Vault, which never drops any specials for me over my 24 completions and numerous additional partial runs.

Early on though I noticed that I would get very similar loot drops running Crota back to back with different characters. I think I made a joke one time that I was going to get another NLB on our second run that night and it came true.

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6 Dragon's breath
5 No land Beyond
3 MIDA multitool
1 Truth
1 normal mode ship

Yes, clearly there is no weighting to the dlc exotics in the raid :-p

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Since i tend to raid on weekends it seems like all the other guys loot the good stuff before me :)

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6 Dragon's breath
5 No land Beyond
3 MIDA multitool
1 Truth
1 normal mode ship

Yes, clearly there is no weighting to the dlc exotics in the raid :-p

I've actually lost count of how many NLBs I've gotten from the raid.

It's somewhere between 7 and n, where n represents the number of times I have to run the raid again until a Black Hammer drops.

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How did you track down these stats, or do you just keep a ledger? I'd be interested in knowing.

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Worked for me. Got one of each non-primary and double light of the abyss after 7-10 NM completions. Have 5+ dups of all primaries now because I only run HM each week since HM launched. Seems I get a primary drop 2/3 of the time when completing a stage.

I should add that having 2 hunters helped immensely back when Crota first started. I got to 32 pretty quickly because I could solo so much of the raid and gather shards/gear on my own.

Note: Very small (0?) chance to get armor on HM, so you get 2 weapon rolls each stage.

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Not really.

I had thought that it was only for armor, not for weapons actually. Maybe it is for everything. Weapons seem incredibly random still.

In order for me to "take advantage" of that, I've kept one piece of raid armor in each slot, regardless of if I'm using it or not. The armor drops, while slower than expected, seemed to work fairly well in not getting (many) duplicates. I think I had 7 armor drops to get everything, plus one extra. Boots, legs, boots, chest, IB arms (oh yeah, not a drop, just a frustration purchase), arms (within 2 days! augh!), arms (yeah, so that happened), head, chest, head. That's out of enough crota runs on both normal and hard with ym warlock that I've lost count.

Compared to my VoG luck, that was much much better. I think I got 4-5 boots and one pair of legs over the course of ~2 months running VoG. Never did get my arm piece until after the expansion.

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It's definitely better than VoG, but it still took me two months to get my chest piece from CE. 6 boots, 4 gloves, 3 swordbreakers and 3 black hammers before I got a single chest armor.

Then, hilariously, I took my warlock in and got gloves/boots/chest in one raid. Grrrr RNG.

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So did anybody ever figure out how "Smart loot" works? (Destiny)