;-D

And, as ever, the real answer to the question:

I bought my wife a Gunther shirt shortly after we got married.

Is this not simple math? Couldn't a cursory glance at drop rates and expected games played give you a really good idea at what your players can expect?

It's like, if a player plays X games, they will have Y chance at getting shit. Oh, looks like we should change or loot algorithm.

I mean, casinos have this figured completely out. This seems like a really simple problem to avoid.

Bungie doesn't want you to get all of the gear, because then you stop chasing the dragon. So they ensure you *can't* get all of the gear, which keeps the playlists populated well past people getting 10 packages.

If everyone who went to Vegas lost all the time, nobody would gamble. So, you sometimes win. But not enough so that the casinos lose money. The formula has been figured out by this point…

Right. The odds are good that you get 1-3 pieces of gear in your first 10 packages, but bad enough that you need to play for about 30ish packages to get them all, right?

I really don't know. I haven't played Iron banner, but some folks on reddit are saying they went through 30 packages with no armor at all being awarded.

That's pretty terrible. Bungie should really follow the Path of Exile setup for % chance to happen events, which is that the chance increases by a like percentage every time the event doesn't happen. So if you have a 10% chance to get a rare item, instead of having any possibility of an absurd streak of never getting rare items, if you don't get a rare on your first roll, the second roll is 20%, the third is 30%, all the way until it's guaranteed. If, at any point, you get a rare, then the rate resets back to the initial 10% value and the process starts over. The net result is actually a > 10% chance at rares, but you're guaranteed to get a rare *at minimum* 10% of the time, rather than Bungie's current minimum of never.

Is this not simple math? Couldn't a cursory glance at drop rates and expected games played give you a really good idea at what your players can expect?

It's like, if a player plays X games, they will have Y chance at getting shit. Oh, looks like we should change or loot algorithm.

I mean, casinos have this figured completely out. This seems like a really simple problem to avoid.

Bungie doesn't want you to get all of the gear, because then you stop chasing the dragon. So they ensure you *can't* get all of the gear, which keeps the playlists populated well past people getting 10 packages.

If everyone who went to Vegas lost all the time, nobody would gamble. So, you sometimes win. But not enough so that the casinos lose money. The formula has been figured out by this point…

Right. The odds are good that you get 1-3 pieces of gear in your first 10 packages, but bad enough that you need to play for about 30ish packages to get them all, right?

I really don't know. I haven't played Iron banner, but some folks on reddit are saying they went through 30 packages with no armor at all being awarded.

Is this not simple math? Couldn't a cursory glance at drop rates and expected games played give you a really good idea at what your players can expect?

It's like, if a player plays X games, they will have Y chance at getting shit. Oh, looks like we should change or loot algorithm.

I mean, casinos have this figured completely out. This seems like a really simple problem to avoid.

Bungie doesn't want you to get all of the gear, because then you stop chasing the dragon. So they ensure you *can't* get all of the gear, which keeps the playlists populated well past people getting 10 packages.

If everyone who went to Vegas lost all the time, nobody would gamble. So, you sometimes win. But not enough so that the casinos lose money. The formula has been figured out by this point…

Right. The odds are good that you get 1-3 pieces of gear in your first 10 packages, but bad enough that you need to play for about 30ish packages to get them all, right?

Is this not simple math? Couldn't a cursory glance at drop rates and expected games played give you a really good idea at what your players can expect?

It's like, if a player plays X games, they will have Y chance at getting shit. Oh, looks like we should change or loot algorithm.

I mean, casinos have this figured completely out. This seems like a really simple problem to avoid.

Bungie doesn't want you to get all of the gear, because then you stop chasing the dragon. So they ensure you *can't* get all of the gear, which keeps the playlists populated well past people getting 10 packages.

If everyone who went to Vegas lost all the time, nobody would gamble. So, you sometimes win. But not enough so that the casinos lose money. The formula has been figured out by this point…

All of which tells me that the game isn't fun enough for people to want to play on their own, regardless of whether there are loot drops or not.

Really? For me D2 is way better than D1.

I'm only talking about pvp in my initial post. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

Mixed bag for me. The PvE is dramatically improved and really delivers on the promise of D1, I think. The PvP is okay but not as fun for me. It lacks the high skill barrier, which is both good and bad, but I found D1's pvp to have a surprising amount of depth, from various functional loadouts to the intricacies of advanced movement to controlling lanes... it was extremely involved. D2 lacks the movement almost completely, and while I think the weapons changes away from OHKs are a vast improvement, I think also losing the advanced movement and relegating player skill to a backseat to team shooting is a change that is less fun *for me*. It's better than the final iteration of the D1 meta, but overall a step backwards because of the limited mobility options and emphasis on teamwork over individual player skill. I'm sure it will grow on me; it already has.

At pretty much every level and every activity. It does not have an infinite amount to do, but with the additions of the Adventures, it has way more good, hand crafted, voiced mission content than any Bungie game before it.

Yeah, the PvE is great. Seriously. There's tons to do and it's really fun just to wander around these great big spaces. My critiques are purely oriented at PvP (because this discussion is about iron banner, and not, say, the raid).

I think the randomness and uncaring nature of the RNG is pretty bad at the moment. But I think that can be solved in a number of ways. Maybe let us buy vendor armor / weapons directly again with Tokens so playing enough means we can complete the set we want. Or maybe explicitly make it so this round of Iron Banner will only give out the helmet but tell us next round will be the chest pieces so we aren't flailing away not getting something that we want.

I agree that the issue is fixable, and I also believe it needs fixing. The state right now is not good. Your suggestions would all be fine, though I'd like to see something more along the lines of guaranteed armor at 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 packages (different slots so you get a full set in one IB event) rather than 1 item per IB event so a full set takes 5 events.

But yeah... the idea that the game isn't fun enough strikes me as... if not wrong, then not giving enough consideration to what people say they are wanting as opposed to the actual problems.

Again, just talking about PvP. If it's not fun enough that I want to play without the rewards, then it isn't fun enough in my book.

P.S. You're ascribing negatives to Bungie again where they may not necessarily fit. My thought on chasing the dragon is that D2 has made it VASTLY easier than in most or all iterations of D1. For instance, there was never a point where I was stuck at a level like happened in early D1. Did Bungie want me chasing the dragon more then or now??

Eh, different dragons. In D1 you were chasing the dragon of light level because that light level made a small difference in your actual power and effectiveness in endgame pvp. In D2 power level is meaningless in pvp, so you're chasing the dragon of loot drops, and the loot largely doesn't justify the effort required, plus it's all RNG based which means your effort is rewarded randomly, if at all, rather than guaranteed. This particular dragon is not one I am compelled to chase. Ergo, it's not fun for me.

Possibly, but I can’t help thinking that if Bungie had any desire to have a PvP mode where power level matters, then right now is the best time to do it. Because in another month, everyone will be so close to max level that it won’t matter at all.

It's just a bad idea in general. If power matters a great deal, then if you aren't max level it's hopeless. If it doesn't, then well it doesn't really matter. Even in Destiny, you had to be almost 30 light lower for the power level difference to even start becoming apparent, so it basically never mattered then either.

I think you’re bang on with regards to Bungie treating IB as a more mass-appeal event, and I think that is precisely why we won’t see power levels return to IB. Nothing makes people who have stepped away from D2 want to jump back in like telling them “hey, not only are less practiced than the hardcore fans who play all the time, but you do less damage now too!” ;p

It looks like Bungie is slowly (and rightly in my mind) shifting away from power level as a thing. I would love to see it go away completely for D3stiny.

Yes, but in D1 they needed to distinguish because both types of playlists existed. Why would they continue to distinguish in D2 unless both versions were also present? Unless they're just leaving the door open to add a "level advantage enabled" playlist in the future, if they choose?

Because a significant portion of Destiny players are returning players, and this is a change from what they know.

https://www.youtube.com/user/guntherofficial/videos

The thumbnails are scary enough XD