"RNG" doesn't mean completely random... (Destiny)

by Korny , Dalton, Ga. US. Earth, Sol System, Friday, January 30, 2015, 05:37 (3371 days ago) @ c0ld vengeance

http://www.reddit.com/r/DestinyTheGame/comments/2u6pbk/probability_of_xur_selling_the_exact_the_same/

From a thread on reddit. The OP stats the odds are 1 in 10 million but this was reduced to 1 in 10 thousand further down the thread.

But if the DLC items have been weighted to fall more often, this reduces the odds significantly.

Smells off in my opinion.

I'm sure there are not only items, but sets that are weighted more heavily than others. Say that Voidfang Vestments have a 15% chance of dropping, and Heart of the Praxic Fire only has a 10% chance of dropping. While they are thrown into a jumble, VV has five more "entries" than HotPF, and so has a higher likelihood of showing up. Mix that in with all other exotics that have varying odds, and you run into situations where some items never show up, while a whole set of DLC gear can make an appearance...

Maybe there are two tables (DLC and non-DLC) and whichever shows up that week is random too?

I dunno, but the whole "1 in 10 million" seems to be under the assumption that every piece of gear has an identical chance of appearing in each individual slot (per class). If that were the case, we could theoretically have a week where he sells two of the same item, and I doubt that's possible.

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Xûr's Goodies - Korny, 2015-01-30, 01:20
- Heavy Ammo Synths! - Korny, 2015-01-30, 01:23
  - No Heavy Ammo Synths! *Fixed* - INSANEdrive, 2015-01-30, 04:15
  - I have well and truly bit the bullet - Raflection, 2015-01-30, 04:27
    - I have well and truly bit the bullet - petetheduck, 2015-01-30, 05:24
    - Holdout. - INSANEdrive, 2015-01-30, 07:17
- The RNG system seems tweeked to sell DLC - c0ld vengeance, 2015-01-30, 05:15
  - The RNG system seems tweeked to sell DLC - petetheduck, 2015-01-30, 05:17
  - "RNG" doesn't mean completely random... - Korny, 2015-01-30, 05:37
- This is a F***ing joke - ChrisTheeCrappy, 2015-01-30, 07:00
  - Voidbreaker Protocal - iconicbanana, 2015-01-30, 07:58
    - Voidbreaker Protocol - Morpheus, 2015-01-30, 08:24
      - Voidbreaker Protocol - Korny, 2015-01-30, 08:44
        
        Been meaning to ask you. - iconicbanana, 2015-01-30, 08:51
        
        Obsidian isn't that much in PvP - ZackDark, 2015-01-30, 09:13
        
        Obsidian isn't that much in PvP - iconicbanana, 2015-01-30, 09:24
        
        Been meaning to ask you. - Korny, 2015-01-30, 09:35
  - This is a F***ing joke - Earendil, 2015-01-30, 10:01
    - This is a F***ing joke - ChrisTheeCrappy, 2015-01-30, 10:40
      - This is a F***ing joke - Korny, 2015-01-30, 10:46
        
        This is a F***ing joke - Cody Miller, 2015-01-30, 11:24
        
        BUT - RaichuKFM, 2015-01-30, 11:45
        
        BUT - stabbim, 2015-01-30, 12:00
        
        BUT - RaichuKFM, 2015-01-30, 12:24
        
        ( _'') ... (''_ ) ... ( '_' ) - iconicbanana, 2015-01-30, 12:26
        
        BUT - Cody Miller, 2015-01-30, 12:55
        
        BUT - RaichuKFM, 2015-01-30, 13:09
        
        BUT - Kermit, 2015-01-30, 13:08
        
        This is a F***ing joke - ChrisTheeCrappy, 2015-01-30, 13:19
        
        This discussion is a F***ing joke - RaichuKFM, 2015-01-30, 13:25
        
        This discussion is a F***ing joke - ChrisTheeCrappy, 2015-01-30, 13:40
        
        This discussion is a F***ing joke - RaichuKFM, 2015-01-30, 15:05
        
        You busy Saturday? - iconicbanana, 2015-01-30, 15:07
        
        You busy Saturday? - stabbim, 2015-01-30, 15:13
        
        You busy Saturday? - iconicbanana, 2015-01-30, 15:16
        
        This discussion is a F***ing joke - stabbim, 2015-01-30, 15:12
- My +100 coins go untouched for yet another week. - Revenant1988, 2015-01-30, 07:59
  - My +100 coins go untouched for yet another week. - Speedracer513, 2015-01-30, 08:15
  - My +100 coins go untouched for yet another week. - bluerunner, 2015-01-30, 08:16
    - My +100 coins go untouched for yet another week. - Xenos, 2015-01-30, 08:26
  - Is there a limit to how many we can have saved up? - Penthesilean, 2015-01-30, 14:20
    - Might be like other resources... - Korny, 2015-01-30, 14:26
      - Might be like other resources... - CyberKN, 2015-01-30, 14:36
        
        Might be like other resources... - Claude Errera, 2015-01-30, 15:58
        
        Might be like other resources... - Cody Miller, 2015-01-30, 16:01
        
        Might be like other resources... - Claude Errera, 2015-01-30, 17:02
        
        Might be like other resources... - CruelLEGACEY, 2015-01-30, 17:17
- Xûr's Goodies - Velociraptor112, 2015-01-30, 09:15
- Xûr's Goodies - BeardFade, 2015-01-30, 10:07
- Still no universal remote.... - Spec ops Grunt, 2015-01-30, 14:05
  - Still no universal remote.... - Cody Miller, 2015-01-30, 14:07
    - No accounting for playstyle - RaichuKFM, 2015-01-30, 14:40
    - Still no universal remote.... - stabbim, 2015-01-30, 15:20

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"RNG" doesn't mean completely random... (Destiny)