Follow up with comparison data (Destiny)

by Robot Chickens, Friday, January 29, 2016, 22:54 (3461 days ago) @ Robot Chickens

I went back to the IB last year held in July to compare data. This was when I was playing Destiny better than I am now and it is arguably near when Year One had its best networking code due refinements over time. I played those 90 games towards the beginning of the week so the boon was week.

One significant difference is that scores in Rift swing a lot faster than in Control. As such I am defining a blowout (somewhat arbitrarily) as a difference of more than 4000 points in Control. This means a blowout happens when the losing side was under 15999 points. I used a 6000 point spread in for Rift because a close match where you're only down by one score, quickly can become lopsided if the other team scores just one more time. I'm open to critique about my reasoning.

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Data for IB July 2015:

90 total games
41 wins
40 good matches

• 18 wins
  
• 22 losses

50 blowouts

• 23 wins
  
• 27 losses

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Percentages

Overall Win rate: 46%

Good match rate: 45%
Good match win rate: 46%
Blowout rate: 56%
Blowout win rate: 46%

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Analysis

• Once again, my win rate is the same in the blowouts and in the good matches where it is closer. At least destiny is consistent.
  
• There is a significant change in my personal win percentage. Either I have gotten worse (totally possible because my pvp k/d went from 1.2 to 1.1 between the two years), or matchmaking is doing things differently to my detriment. My gut says it is a combination of both.
  
• The number of blowouts was significantly less during Year One IB. However, as with Year Two, my win rate was consistent in the good games and the blowouts.
  
• I redeemed a medallion almost every other round. Last night I was redeeming two every three games but it felt more fair. Goes to show that memories of those long stretches without redeeming medallions loom larger in my mind than the ones where I was winning every round.
  
• Assuming each round takes 15 minutes of my life when turnaround time is included, 90 games is 22.5 hours of my life. I take on the equivalent of a part-time job during the week of Iron Banner.

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Data for last night:

26 total games
9 wins
10 good matches
16 blowouts

• 6 wins
  
• 10 losses

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Percentages

Win rate: 35%

Good match rate: 38%

Blowout win rate: 38%

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Analysis

• A win rate of 35% means I was was redeeming about 2 medallions every 3 games. That feels a lot better than previous IB experiences but I haven't run any data to compare them. Overall I can live with that.
  
• The rate of getting good matches was just over 1 in 3. That seems unacceptable.
  
• On the other hand, my win rate in blowout matches was pretty much the same as my overall win rate. I think blowouts in riff happen more easily because it just takes about two unanswered scores to produce this spread. If you have a relatively close game where you're only down by one detonation, it quickly becomes a blowout if the other team manages to score. Perhaps these numbers are a bit misleading as a result.