Prediction: The 5th raid will release on February 8, 2018

I decided to apply Math™ to see how Bungie's Raid production schedule is trending. The results aren't encouraging.

VoG:
Days since Last Raid: N/A
Days since Launch: 7

CE:
Days since Last Raid: 84
Days since Launch: 91

KF:
Days since Last Raid: 283
Days since Launch: 374

RoI:
Days since Last Raid: 368
Days since Launch: 742
(These numbers assume the raid is released the same day as the expansion, so may be inaccurate)

Raid 5:
Days since Last Raid: 506 (extrapolated based on available data)
Days since Launch: 1248

Here's a Graph:
[image]

Calling it now: Dest1ny's 5th raid will be released after Des2ny comes out. Hopefully this worrying trend can be reversed before too long...

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I love some rampant extrapolation.

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https://xkcd.com/605/

https://xkcd.com/1007/

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If my defense, I'm half asleep... :p

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http://www.murderousmaths.co.uk/elvis.htm

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Calling it now: Dest1ny's 5th raid will be released after Des2ny comes out. Hopefully this worrying trend can be reversed before too long...

They're averaging one every 2/3 of a year. :-/

I'm expecting the continued increase in time between raids isn't going to continue to increase, we're just now seeing how a quickly their pipeline is putting things out now that their pre-release cache of work is all used up.

Bungie needs to speed this up IMHO.

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Calling it now: Dest1ny's 5th raid will be released after Des2ny comes out. Hopefully this worrying trend can be reversed before too long...

They're averaging one every 2/3 of a year. :-/

I'm expecting the continued increase in time between raids isn't going to continue to increase, we're just now seeing how a quickly their pipeline is putting things out now that their pre-release cache of work is all used up.

Bungie needs to speed this up IMHO.

I've been thinking about this a bit lately... as a player, I would love new raids more often. But I do realize that may not be realistic... the raids are so complex and resource-intensive to build. Looking back at how Destiny has progressed since launch, there is a pattern of funneling players towards a small list of "end game" activities. Some of us (myself included) then repeat these end-game activities over and over and over, burning ourselves out on them in a matter of weeks, making the wait for new content feel that much longer.

I do sometimes wonder if the answer is not to crank out end-game content faster and more frequently, but rather to make more of Destiny's activities interesting for long-term players. I'm really excited for the new patrol space in Rise of Iron, but if it's anything like the previous spaces I'll be more or less "done" with it in a couple days. I'd love to see Bungie find a way to make patrol more exciting and interesting. TTK took some great steps in that regard. Hopefully that trend will continue. I'd also like to see ALL of Destiny's strikes brought forward to end-game level in some capacity. If they replace the current Heroic strike rotation with another list of 5 or 6 strikes, we'll burn out on those in no time. Especially given that only 1 of the strikes will be truly "new".

I wonder if Bungie could add new variations of existing activies to help flesh-out the end game. How about super-hard versions of strikes that allowed fireteams of 4 or 6? Or new Patrol Bounties that are more challenging than the current ones, and require a fireteam? That kind of stuff seems like a way to give high-level players new stuff to do without necessarily taking up loads of development resources.

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I've been thinking about this a bit lately... as a player, I would love new raids more often. But I do realize that may not be realistic... the raids are so complex and resource-intensive to build.

This is what I'm curious about. Are they really? Because you look at the play space, and the raid geometry areas are not super large when it comes to modern AAA levels, or even to the other areas in Destiny. Does it really take a long time to build the areas? Does it take long to design them? Script them? Test them? Are they really that much more resource intensive than making a similar area in a regular level of an AAA FPS?

I am guessing they are that way because so many tweaks need to be made, and the tools are so bad. When Bungie fixes the tools, and you don't have to spend 12 hours loading your level just to move a box, I'll bet we can start getting more and better end game activities. I'd never say anything bad about Bungie again if Destiny 2 shipped with 7 raids for the end game.

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I'd never say anything bad about Bungie again if Destiny 2 shipped with 7 raids for the end game.

lol

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The ideal for me would be a new raid every 4-6 months. I honestly question if Bungie could keep up with that pace though. IMHO The Kings Fall raid could (should?) have been split up into 2 separate raids, it's certainly long enough. The question is, if they released 2 raids 1/2 the size of Kings Fall, would we feel the need to run each raid every week? If so we'd burn out on them just as quickly as we do now. Perhaps Bungie could have staggered the two halves of the Kings Fall raid by a month or two.

I wonder if Bungie could add new variations of existing activies to help flesh-out the end game. How about super-hard versions of strikes that allowed fireteams of 4 or 6? Or new Patrol Bounties that are more challenging than the current ones, and require a fireteam? That kind of stuff seems like a way to give high-level players new stuff to do without necessarily taking up loads of development resources.

Yeah, I would like to see some more variety with things like that. Court of Oryx was a big step in the right direction, but it got stale fairly quickly.

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Or how about making old raids something people* still want to do...

* other than crazy people like us. There are not enough us.

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Prediction: The 5th raid will release on February 8, 2018 (/-/ Rampant Speculation /-/)

Hah

Smites Themp

Math™ is never wrong.

"If current trends continue"

Surprisingly, there's no directly relevant XKCD...

I refuse to believe this is true

It's not.

It's not.

At least it's not 2043.

"Murderous Maths", more like "Murderous Wed Design"

"Murderous WEDnesday Design" or "Murderous WEDding Design"?

Web Extravagant Design... design

+1

We should have 13 raids by then!