Some math. (Destiny)

by uberfoop , Seattle-ish, Thursday, August 28, 2014, 08:53 (3747 days ago) @ narcogen

How does that figure?

The installed base of the 360 and PS3 combined right now is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 200M.

Not quite 200M; late last year the 360 wasn't even to 80 million sell-throughs, the PS3 was pretty near, and these consoles have had reduced sales since XB1/PS4 launched.

Game sales potential on PS360 is nowhere near what that number suggests, though. Some units no longer work, some people own multiples, some people have old hardware but no longer buy (or play) on it. The launch of the new generation has had a big impact here; PS4/XB1 versions appear to significantly discourage people from buying PS360 versions of cross-gen games.

The PS4 just hit 10M and is doing better than the Xbox One, at least worldwide if not also in the US at this point.

The PS4 is ahead even in the US. The front-loaded fanbase, and Microsoft's generally good holiday performance, allowed XB1 to slightly edge out PS4 last December. But the PS4 has sold more units every other month.

Sony continues to promote the game as if it was an exclusive, and Microsoft continues to let them do it.

Sony cut a marketing deal with Activision for Destiny. IIRC, it's the same reason (with Microsoft instead of Sony) that Call of Duty has at times seemed like an Xbox title.

This is why...

It'll be interesting to see if Bungie's 360-owning following gives the new title a boost on either of Microsoft's platforms or not.

...some people are predicting that Destiny will cause a large spike in PS4 sales, much moreso than other platforms.

It's definitely strange, though. Unless the attach rate on existing users is absurd, Destiny is going to have to sell large numbers of PS4s and XB1s.