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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line (Criticism)

by Schedonnardus @, Texas, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 06:14 (686 days ago)

https://twitter.com/saraheneedleman/status/955873298704949249

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Wow Twitch viewership of D2 in Dec 2017 was 1.8 MILLION HOURS LESS than D1 year three in 2016.

and microtransactions are not performing as expected (GOOD).

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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by ManKitten ⌂, The Stugotz is strong in me., Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 07:17 (686 days ago) @ Schedonnardus

What's crazy about this is that "high profile streamers" are one of the leading factors of this blurb.

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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by Funkmon @, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 07:55 (686 days ago) @ ManKitten

Yeah I'm positive they have little effect on actual sales, but they're just people who have shit on the game publicly so whatever.

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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by Cody Miller @, Music of the Spheres - Never Forgot, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 09:10 (686 days ago) @ Funkmon
edited by Cody Miller, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 09:25

Yeah I'm positive they have little effect on actual sales, but they're just people who have shit on the game publicly so whatever.

If that's the case, then they wouldn't be affecting the bottom line. I don't really watch streamers at all, so I am genuinely curious how big of a factor they play. 1.2 million viewers seems like a decent chunk of the playerbase.

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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by Funkmon @, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 09:15 (686 days ago) @ Cody Miller

1.2 million hours. In my experience, that's about 250 eleven year old boys.

I do not believe game streamers have an appreciable effect on a game's bottom line, unless the game is tiny.

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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by Harmanimus @, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 10:32 (686 days ago) @ Funkmon
edited by Harmanimus, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 10:52

That is grossly misunderstanding streamings market influence. Some games are ingrained with partnerships. Twitch provides a lot of subscriber benefits for in game rewards. Any long-term investment game that relies on a steady player base or community can live or die on streamers. A major contributing factor to the death of Lawbreakers was the difficulty in streaming it (aggressive skill-based matchmaking led to long queue times which killed the player base as streamers stopped playing because they moved to other games) which hit a niche game very hard.

In contrast, the current Battle Royale popularity can be seen as more directly tied to streaming and specifically that streamers playing with subscribers is a way to move units for people on the fence and the use of fancy items by streamers often leads to smaller in game purchases of cosmetic items. For a lot of folks Let’s Play and Streamer content has replaced other gaming journalism sources.

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Yeah but still.

by Funkmon @, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 10:41 (686 days ago) @ Harmanimus

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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by Schedonnardus @, Texas, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 14:26 (686 days ago) @ Harmanimus

In contrast, the current Battle Royale popularity can be seen as more directly tied to streaming and specifically that streamers playing with subscribers is a way to move units for people on the fence and the use of fancy items by streamers often leads to smaller in game purchases of cosmetic items. For a lot of folks Let’s Play and Streamer content has replaced other gaming journalism sources.

At the time of this post D2 has 1,400 viewers, the division has 1,800 and fortnite has 63,000.

Also, it's worth noting that Fortnite has MTX, but the PvP portion of the game is entirely free and MTX's are 100% cosmetic. PvE is not free, and you have to buy the game to play it.

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That's too bad.

by Funkmon @, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 07:54 (686 days ago) @ Schedonnardus

But this is only good for the games IMO. Now they definitely know what people don't like, so they'll make a next game that more people enjoy!

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my thoughts exactly

by CruelLEGACEY @, Toronto, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 11:10 (686 days ago) @ Funkmon

- No text -

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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by Ragashingo ⌂ @, Official DBO Cryptarch, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 08:47 (686 days ago) @ Schedonnardus

Yeah... basing budgets and profit forecasts on micro transactions just seems so iffy to me. It's almost like the sales of the game itself aren't important anymore... which just feels weird. Even if the wider market has proved (too many) people will spend (way too much) on funny hats...

Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by Coaxkez, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 09:15 (686 days ago) @ Schedonnardus

I'm not a fan of microtransactions, but when they're purely cosmetic, are they really that bad?

We have yet to see Bungie deliver fully on their promise of free content funded by MTX revenues, but that sounds like it would be well worth the trade-off for me.

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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by cheapLEY @, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 10:27 (686 days ago) @ Coaxkez

I'm not a fan of microtransactions, but when they're purely cosmetic, are they really that bad?

I would argue that yes, they are. Even if it’s not really that different in practice, it still makes me feel like I’m not getting the full experience without paying even more money.

Destiny strikes a decent balance with earning Bright Engrams, but it still feels worse than having all those items spread throughout the game. I try to play the game and see Bright Engrams as neat bonus things I get occasionally, but when so many of the truly cool and unique cosmetic items are locked in the ecosystem, it does become a little difficult.

Fortunately that seems to be one of the things Bungie is looking at changing with ships and ghosts and such being put into regular loot tables. I’m optimistic.

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"Destiny is Not in a good place."

by Korny @, Dalton, Ga. US. Earth, Sol System, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 11:26 (686 days ago) @ Schedonnardus

"We do think Bungie still has some opportunity to fix the game's problems over the next year and recapture engagement, but we're not sure they have the ability to pull it off at this point," analyst Doug Creutz wrote. "We also note that Destiny currently has more serious competition in its genre from a refurbished Division (Ubisoft) and the indie title Warframe than it did three years ago, when D1 had its own share of player dissatisfaction."

Now there's an analyst who does the research... Some folks these days are content with blaming PUBG.

He said several key "Destiny" video streamers have announced they will reduce content for the game in the future. He noted Twitch viewership for the game is at "franchise-low" levels averaging 4,000 to 7,000 viewers on Friday afternoons versus 14,000 to 17,000 for "Destiny 1" one year ago.

Since they received statements from him, Destiny has dropped under 1000 viewers on Twitch. Sure, it's not a Friday, but it's a continuing sign of decline. Personally, I think this is a good thing, and I've gotten a bit of schadenfreude from the Streamers who have less stuff to exploit, and have to resort to finding new ways to make their viewers find them interesting, but that's a silver lining for another thread.

Creutz also shared four key reasons why he believes the game is faltering:

  • 1. "Design decisions were made that have made D2 a less engaging, and less distinctive, game than D1. In particular, key aspects of the D2 end game feel neutered compared to D1."

  • 2. "Microtransaction implementation, while not nearly as problematic as in Star Wars Battlefront 2, has still been a source of player unhappiness."

  • 3. "Bungie's [the studio that developed the game] apparent urgency in responding to player feedback has been disappointing."

  • 4. "Until recently, Bungie did a poor job communicating its road map going forward, particularly compared to the more open stance of many other live service games."

It's really interesting to see that there's plenty of higher-ups over at Activision who are well aware of all of Bungie's current issues, and who are being informed about how they are hurting the bottom line (to the level where it's actually affecting Call of Duty's profit influx). It'll be interesting to see what steps Activision takes. I'd give anything to hear those conversations between them and the Bungie reps...

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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by Schooly D, TSD Gaming Condo, TX, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 11:46 (686 days ago) @ Schedonnardus

Losing players and streamers is serious, but I'm curious why this analyst is ignoring the other side of the coin here: microtransactions (and the various methods Destiny 2 uses to influence you to use them) upset some players and drive them off, but they also bring in a lot of money. Who's to say Bungie/ATVI haven't run the numbers and decided the extra dosh hauled in via aggressive MTX isn't offsetting the decrease in players, player activity, and popularity?

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Destiny make hurt Activision's bottom line

by CruelLEGACEY @, Toronto, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 11:50 (686 days ago) @ Schooly D

Losing players and streamers is serious, but I'm curious why this analyst is ignoring the other side of the coin here: microtransactions (and the various methods Destiny 2 uses to influence you to use them) upset some players and drive them off, but they also bring in a lot of money. Who's to say Bungie/ATVI haven't run the numbers and decided the extra dosh hauled in via aggressive MTX isn't offsetting the decrease in players, player activity, and popularity?

I would guess that they are considering such things. The catch with MTX is that they are only effective if people are playing your game, and they are more effective the more people are playing. So when they look at the stats for D1 last year, a game that also had MTX, but also had a larger active player base, it is reasonable to assume that D2 is bringing in less revenue than D1 as a result.

I haven't checked, but I know that in 2015 and/or 2016, "Destiny Silver" was one of the most purchased items on the Playstation store. So having a high count of active players certainly lead to a lot of MTX sales for Bungie and Activision.

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Destiny may hurt Activision's bottom line

by Korny @, Dalton, Ga. US. Earth, Sol System, Wednesday, January 24, 2018, 11:52 (686 days ago) @ Schooly D

Losing players and streamers is serious, but I'm curious why this analyst is ignoring the other side of the coin here: microtransactions (and the various methods Destiny 2 uses to influence you to use them) upset some players and drive them off, but they also bring in a lot of money. Who's to say Bungie/ATVI haven't run the numbers and decided the extra dosh hauled in via aggressive MTX isn't offsetting the decrease in players, player activity, and popularity?

They kind of address this:

"While Call of Duty: WWII clearly had a great holiday, which likely sets up strong franchise live services revenue (aka MTX) in 2018, Destiny 2 is struggling right now with player engagement appearing to be on the wane," analyst Doug Creutz wrote in a note to clients Tuesday entitled "Destiny is Not in a Good Place."

"We are a bit cautious that potentially disappointing live service revenue there could at least partially offset upside from CoD in 2018," he said

Basically sounds like they were banking on heavy MTX profits for D2, but it doesn't seem to be doing so hot...

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Not so fast...

by Speedracer513 @, Dallas, Texas, Thursday, January 25, 2018, 09:03 (685 days ago) @ Schedonnardus

I know that Paul Tassi (the guy that writes about Destiny 2 pretty much every day for Forbes) isn't always very popular around here, but he sometimes has some interesting and even informative stuff to say; and since it was his article about how the "influencers" are all leaving that kind of kicked off this stuff, I found this article he published yesterday to be an interesting counterpoint -- and especially because it came my way via a tweet by Michael Pachter (a well known and highly respected financial analyst at Wedbush Securities, who specializes in video games and entertainment), with his take being:

Forbes article by @PaulTassi here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2018/01/24/a-warning-about-the-notion-that-dest... … basically saying don't listen to the loudest voices who complain about everything.

and also:

... Mr. Tassi correctly notes the potential for sell-side analysts to be too close to the subject matter, and to be influenced by angry gamers. Very insightful conclusions

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+ Wouldnt the CEO leaving be more pertinent to shareholders?

by Pyromancy @, Thursday, January 25, 2018, 10:12 (685 days ago) @ Speedracer513

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