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Bigger than Halo? (Destiny)

by Kermit @, Raleigh, NC, Thursday, July 31, 2014, 17:20 (2640 days ago)

New article about the beta on the Verge.

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Bigger than Halo?

by narcogen ⌂ @, Andover, Massachusetts, Thursday, July 31, 2014, 20:33 (2640 days ago) @ Kermit

It'd have to be significantly worse than Halo (or at least significantly worse than something it's competing against) not to be.

At its best, Halo games launched on a single console platform generation at a time, with PC ports only coming years later for certain games in the series, sometimes with weird OS restrictions.

Destiny is launching day and date on four different consoles. They can have a significantly lower attach rate than Halo on any or all of those individual platforms and still sell as much as an average Halo title. If they were to achieve a similar attach rate on one or more of those platforms, I think they'd have a good run at doing as well or better as the best-selling entries in the Halo series.

A rumored PC version next year is merely icing on the cake.

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Bigger than Halo?

by Cody Miller @, Music of the Spheres - Never Forgot, Thursday, July 31, 2014, 22:58 (2640 days ago) @ narcogen

A rumored PC version next year is merely icing on the cake.

This is kind of one of those areas I'd like Bungie to be a little more open about, simply because of the investment required to play Destiny on PS4.

There's the cost of the PS4, and the cost of PSN+. If that could have been avoided and I could have gotten a PC version, I'd have been happier. If a PC version is announced shortly I might be an unhappy camper.

Bigger than Halo?

by kapowaz, Friday, August 01, 2014, 00:49 (2640 days ago) @ Cody Miller

A rumored PC version next year is merely icing on the cake.


This is kind of one of those areas I'd like Bungie to be a little more open about, simply because of the investment required to play Destiny on PS4.

There's the cost of the PS4, and the cost of PSN+. If that could have been avoided and I could have gotten a PC version, I'd have been happier. If a PC version is announced shortly I might be an unhappy camper.

Prepare yourself…!

I've already started musing on this; I splashed the cash on a PS4 which I might not have done otherwise (ah who am I kidding? The Last Of Us Remastered sold me on getting one).

The bigger issue for me is in choosing which network you're going to invest in, socially; you can't bring your friends with you to PC from PS4 unless they choose to start from scratch again and happen to own a PC.

But no doubt about it, not mentioning a PC version at all has to be part of Sony's big PS4 sales pitch. They know that a certain number of people will buy a PS4 just to play Destiny, and the chance that it'll come out on PC later only damages sales in the mid-term.

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Bigger than Halo?

by SonofMacPhisto @, Friday, August 01, 2014, 10:45 (2640 days ago) @ Cody Miller

A rumored PC version next year is merely icing on the cake.


This is kind of one of those areas I'd like Bungie to be a little more open about, simply because of the investment required to play Destiny on PS4.

There's the cost of the PS4, and the cost of PSN+. If that could have been avoided and I could have gotten a PC version, I'd have been happier. If a PC version is announced shortly I might be an unhappy camper.

Annnnnnd once again I swing back from picking up Destiny on launch day.

Have basically ruled out getting a One for it. Heard good enough things of the 360 version, but the folks I'd play with on 360 also have PCs... and there's only so many people you can play with at one time anyway.

Decisions decisions. Good thing there is time; other options, avenues, enjoyment. /Mordin

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Bigger than Halo?

by TTL Demag0gue ⌂ @, Within the shadow of the Traveler, Friday, August 01, 2014, 14:28 (2639 days ago) @ SonofMacPhisto

A rumored PC version next year is merely icing on the cake.


This is kind of one of those areas I'd like Bungie to be a little more open about, simply because of the investment required to play Destiny on PS4.

There's the cost of the PS4, and the cost of PSN+. If that could have been avoided and I could have gotten a PC version, I'd have been happier. If a PC version is announced shortly I might be an unhappy camper.


Annnnnnd once again I swing back from picking up Destiny on launch day.

Have basically ruled out getting a One for it. Heard good enough things of the 360 version, but the folks I'd play with on 360 also have PCs... and there's only so many people you can play with at one time anyway.

Decisions decisions. Good thing there is time; other options, avenues, enjoyment. /Mordin

What's wrong with buying multiple copies of the game? Destiny's one of those games (maybe the first) where I'll probably own a copy for PS4, Xbox 360, and Xbox One (once I acquire one) just so I can play the game with the friends I have in all those communities. I don't mind throwing my money at Bungie for this one.

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Bigger than Halo?

by SonofMacPhisto @, Friday, August 01, 2014, 14:48 (2639 days ago) @ TTL Demag0gue

A rumored PC version next year is merely icing on the cake.


This is kind of one of those areas I'd like Bungie to be a little more open about, simply because of the investment required to play Destiny on PS4.

There's the cost of the PS4, and the cost of PSN+. If that could have been avoided and I could have gotten a PC version, I'd have been happier. If a PC version is announced shortly I might be an unhappy camper.


Annnnnnd once again I swing back from picking up Destiny on launch day.

Have basically ruled out getting a One for it. Heard good enough things of the 360 version, but the folks I'd play with on 360 also have PCs... and there's only so many people you can play with at one time anyway.

Decisions decisions. Good thing there is time; other options, avenues, enjoyment. /Mordin


What's wrong with buying multiple copies of the game? Destiny's one of those games (maybe the first) where I'll probably own a copy for PS4, Xbox 360, and Xbox One (once I acquire one) just so I can play the game with the friends I have in all those communities. I don't mind throwing my money at Bungie for this one.

I don't have the income for such indulgence.

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Bigger than Halo?

by TTL Demag0gue ⌂ @, Within the shadow of the Traveler, Friday, August 01, 2014, 17:23 (2639 days ago) @ SonofMacPhisto

A rumored PC version next year is merely icing on the cake.


This is kind of one of those areas I'd like Bungie to be a little more open about, simply because of the investment required to play Destiny on PS4.

There's the cost of the PS4, and the cost of PSN+. If that could have been avoided and I could have gotten a PC version, I'd have been happier. If a PC version is announced shortly I might be an unhappy camper.


Annnnnnd once again I swing back from picking up Destiny on launch day.

Have basically ruled out getting a One for it. Heard good enough things of the 360 version, but the folks I'd play with on 360 also have PCs... and there's only so many people you can play with at one time anyway.

Decisions decisions. Good thing there is time; other options, avenues, enjoyment. /Mordin


What's wrong with buying multiple copies of the game? Destiny's one of those games (maybe the first) where I'll probably own a copy for PS4, Xbox 360, and Xbox One (once I acquire one) just so I can play the game with the friends I have in all those communities. I don't mind throwing my money at Bungie for this one.


I don't have the income for such indulgence.

Heh, I don't either. Not gonna let that stop me. :)

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Bigger than Halo?

by HuskerAlpha, Sunday, August 03, 2014, 11:38 (2638 days ago) @ SonofMacPhisto

A rumored PC version next year is merely icing on the cake.


This is kind of one of those areas I'd like Bungie to be a little more open about, simply because of the investment required to play Destiny on PS4.

There's the cost of the PS4, and the cost of PSN+. If that could have been avoided and I could have gotten a PC version, I'd have been happier. If a PC version is announced shortly I might be an unhappy camper.


Annnnnnd once again I swing back from picking up Destiny on launch day.

Have basically ruled out getting a One for it. Heard good enough things of the 360 version, but the folks I'd play with on 360 also have PCs... and there's only so many people you can play with at one time anyway.

Decisions decisions. Good thing there is time; other options, avenues, enjoyment. /Mordin


What's wrong with buying multiple copies of the game? Destiny's one of those games (maybe the first) where I'll probably own a copy for PS4, Xbox 360, and Xbox One (once I acquire one) just so I can play the game with the friends I have in all those communities. I don't mind throwing my money at Bungie for this one.


I don't have the income for such indulgence.

*Cough* *Cough* Titanfall *Cough* *Cough*

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Bigger than Halo?

by stabbim @, Des Moines, IA, USA, Sunday, August 03, 2014, 23:24 (2637 days ago) @ HuskerAlpha

[image]

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Bigger than Halo?

by SonofMacPhisto @, Monday, August 04, 2014, 12:11 (2637 days ago) @ stabbim
edited by SonofMacPhisto, Monday, August 04, 2014, 12:15

[image]

Well, yeah, that's part of why I don't have the money for this. :P

EDIT: Also I didn't have to buy a $400 console too. YEAH EAT IT.

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Bigger than Halo?

by HuskerAlpha, Monday, August 04, 2014, 19:55 (2636 days ago) @ SonofMacPhisto

[image]


Well, yeah, that's part of why I don't have the money for this. :P

EDIT: Also I didn't have to buy a $400 console too. YEAH EAT IT.

I want this framed :)

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Bigger than Halo?

by Cody Miller @, Music of the Spheres - Never Forgot, Sunday, August 03, 2014, 11:42 (2638 days ago) @ TTL Demag0gue

What's wrong with buying multiple copies of the game? Destiny's one of those games (maybe the first) where I'll probably own a copy for PS4, Xbox 360, and Xbox One (once I acquire one) just so I can play the game with the friends I have in all those communities. I don't mind throwing my money at Bungie for this one.

I don't know, because if they could have used their muscle to get cross platform co-op play a reality, or else if it had just been a PC / Mac release, you would be $120.00 richer?

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Bigger than Halo?

by RaichuKFM @, Northeastern Ohio, Sunday, August 03, 2014, 20:47 (2637 days ago) @ Cody Miller

I don't know, because if they could have used their muscle to get cross platform co-op play a reality, or else if it had just been a PC / Mac release, you would be $120.00 richer?

I think they would have done the former if they could've, and if it were the latter I have a feeling a lot of folks would be left gameless for an awful reason?

Bigger than Halo?

by electricpirate @, Friday, August 01, 2014, 07:41 (2640 days ago) @ narcogen

It'd have to be significantly worse than Halo (or at least significantly worse than something it's competing against) not to be.

At its best, Halo games launched on a single console platform generation at a time, with PC ports only coming years later for certain games in the series, sometimes with weird OS restrictions.

Destiny is launching day and date on four different consoles. They can have a significantly lower attach rate than Halo on any or all of those individual platforms and still sell as much as an average Halo title. If they were to achieve a similar attach rate on one or more of those platforms, I think they'd have a good run at doing as well or better as the best-selling entries in the Halo series.

A rumored PC version next year is merely icing on the cake.

No matter who you are, new IP is hard, and hitting square between console generations is hard. I mean, do we compare Destiny's first release sales with the first Halo's sales as a new IP (~7 mil), or with the high water mark of Halo 3? (~11 mil)

If destiny hits 10 million in it's first iteration it will be a pretty huge success, as it will have a ton of room to grow. If it hits the high end of the scale at 20 million for a new IP it will be basically unprecedented.

Bigger than Halo?

by rliebherr @, St. Louis, Missouri, Friday, August 01, 2014, 10:34 (2640 days ago) @ electricpirate

Wii Sports hit 82 million. The caveat is it was bundled with the Wii. But still....82 million. 20 million puts it close to Call of Duty, which sold 22 million. Destiny will easily be the top selling game of 2014, and it will be close to the top selling new IP ever if it doesn't take the crown.

Bigger than Halo?

by electricpirate @, Friday, August 01, 2014, 10:44 (2640 days ago) @ rliebherr

Wii Sports hit 82 million. The caveat is it was bundled with the Wii. But still....82 million. 20 million puts it close to Call of Duty, which sold 22 million. Destiny will easily be the top selling game of 2014, and it will be close to the top selling new IP ever if it doesn't take the crown.

Wii sports is a good example! Unprecedented was the wrong word I guess. once in a decade?

Also, Call of Duty 4 sold 22 million. I assure you the first call of duty didn't move near those numbers ;)

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Bigger than Halo?

by narcogen ⌂ @, Andover, Massachusetts, Friday, August 01, 2014, 19:23 (2639 days ago) @ electricpirate

No matter who you are, new IP is hard, and hitting square between console generations is hard. I mean, do we compare Destiny's first release sales with the first Halo's sales as a new IP (~7 mil), or with the high water mark of Halo 3? (~11 mil)

If destiny hits 10 million in it's first iteration it will be a pretty huge success, as it will have a ton of room to grow. If it hits the high end of the scale at 20 million for a new IP it will be basically unprecedented.

If it did half as well on Xbox 360 as Halo 3 did-- at a time when there are as many or more active 360 users than there were when Halo 3 launched-- that would be 5.5M right there. I'm willing to bet it will do better than that.

Let's say it does half as well as that again on PS3-- just as big an installed base, if not bigger, but fewer people who know and love Bungie. So another 2.25M.

There still aren't that many of the new consoles out. Let's be conservative and say half a million each and change-- that rounds up the total to 9M.

I honestly find it hard to imagine doing MUCH worse than that. Even if we assume that every single preorder Beta code was used, that's 1.5M preorders. I'm willing to bet there are more than that-- I don't think all 3 codes per preorder got used.

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Bigger than Halo?

by uberfoop @, Seattle-ish, Saturday, August 02, 2014, 18:12 (2638 days ago) @ narcogen

If it did half as well on Xbox 360 as Halo 3 did-- at a time when there are as many or more active 360 users than there were when Halo 3 launched-- that would be 5.5M right there. I'm willing to bet it will do better than that.

Let's say it does half as well as that again on PS3-- just as big an installed base, if not bigger, but fewer people who know and love Bungie. So another 2.25M.

There still aren't that many of the new consoles out. Let's be conservative and say half a million each and change-- that rounds up the total to 9M.

A lot of people on GAF are going to eat billions of murders of crow if that happens; right now, it seems like cross-gen games are selling significantly better on PS4 and XB1 than they are on PS360.

What exactly that implies for Destiny and its potential sales numbers is an interesting question, I suppose.

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Bigger than Halo?

by Cody Miller @, Music of the Spheres - Never Forgot, Monday, August 04, 2014, 18:31 (2636 days ago) @ uberfoop
edited by Cody Miller, Monday, August 04, 2014, 18:34

If it did half as well on Xbox 360 as Halo 3 did-- at a time when there are as many or more active 360 users than there were when Halo 3 launched-- that would be 5.5M right there. I'm willing to bet it will do better than that.

Let's say it does half as well as that again on PS3-- just as big an installed base, if not bigger, but fewer people who know and love Bungie. So another 2.25M.

There still aren't that many of the new consoles out. Let's be conservative and say half a million each and change-- that rounds up the total to 9M.


A lot of people on GAF are going to eat billions of murders of crow if that happens; right now, it seems like cross-gen games are selling significantly better on PS4 and XB1 than they are on PS360.

What exactly that implies for Destiny and its potential sales numbers is an interesting question, I suppose.

While not exactly scientific, this survey, indicates that just 15% of total sales will be on last gen, and over half on the PS4 alone. Seems like little to gain for the increased development complexity, and player base fragmentation. The real world numbers should be interesting.

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Depends... Bigger in gaming? Or Bigger...everywhere?

by Revenant1988 ⌂ @, How do I forum?, Friday, August 01, 2014, 07:26 (2640 days ago) @ Kermit

New article about the beta on the Verge.

Well I would hope so. It's going to be released on four consoles after all.

Halo is big. Halo is a system seller. It's what gave legitimacy to Microsoft's fledgling console 10 years ago.

Arguably, Halo helped to build XBL into what it is now, and inspired a multitude of other shooters.

And as we know, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Destiny will do the same, but this time for PS4. It will bring legitimacy to PS+, and give people a reason to consider PS4 as their hub for online gaming. Truth be told, without Destiny, I personally had no reason to want a PS4 (other than some of the people I like being there [damn you for that]).


You've said many a time that Bungie is a lot like Apple, and I agree with you. Bungie isn't necessarily the best at innovating brand new stuff (hold on a second fans), but they ARE really good at taking something that already exists, and making it way better.

Also like Apple, they are very good at combining things that at first glance most would shrug off and then making it something you didn't even know you wanted.


As long as Halo remains a console exclusive, Destiny should easily be bigger. Kind of how like CoD is bigger than Halo. You can get it on any system. This is in terms of gaming.


However, Destiny doesn't yet have the other media that Halo has built up (live action shows, DVDs, novels, comics, toys, clothing, etc). So for media presence, I have to say Halo is bigger in that respect.

But those things come with time, obviously.

Once Destiny has that stuff, it will be bigger than Halo in every way. And that is not a bad thing, nor does it make Halo inferior (not saying you are saying that).


[

Shameless Rev wishes: I hope Destiny stays small as long as it can. I've always felt Halo felt best when it was small. Once a film or TV show or game reaches that 'critical mass' of popularity, it loses some of it's magic as it just becomes a money machine for who owns it.

-Rev

Not a hipster ]

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Depends... Bigger in gaming? Or Bigger...everywhere?

by Kermit @, Raleigh, NC, Friday, August 01, 2014, 08:50 (2640 days ago) @ Revenant1988

New article about the beta on the Verge.


Well I would hope so. It's going to be released on four consoles after all.

Halo is big. Halo is a system seller. It's what gave legitimacy to Microsoft's fledgling console 10 years ago.

Arguably, Halo helped to build XBL into what it is now, and inspired a multitude of other shooters.

And as we know, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Destiny will do the same, but this time for PS4. It will bring legitimacy to PS+, and give people a reason to consider PS4 as their hub for online gaming. Truth be told, without Destiny, I personally had no reason to want a PS4 (other than some of the people I like being there [damn you for that]).


You've said many a time that Bungie is a lot like Apple, and I agree with you. Bungie isn't necessarily the best at innovating brand new stuff (hold on a second fans), but they ARE really good at taking something that already exists, and making it way better.

Also like Apple, they are very good at combining things that at first glance most would shrug off and then making it something you didn't even know you wanted.


As long as Halo remains a console exclusive, Destiny should easily be bigger. Kind of how like CoD is bigger than Halo. You can get it on any system. This is in terms of gaming.


However, Destiny doesn't yet have the other media that Halo has built up (live action shows, DVDs, novels, comics, toys, clothing, etc). So for media presence, I have to say Halo is bigger in that respect.

But those things come with time, obviously.

Once Destiny has that stuff, it will be bigger than Halo in every way. And that is not a bad thing, nor does it make Halo inferior (not saying you are saying that).


[

Shameless Rev wishes: I hope Destiny stays small as long as it can. I've always felt Halo felt best when it was small. Once a film or TV show or game reaches that 'critical mass' of popularity, it loses some of it's magic as it just becomes a money machine for who owns it.

-Rev

Not a hipster ]

Good post.

I think it's inarguable that Halo helped to build XBL into what it is now, and inspired a multitude of other shooters.

For me the best Halo content was in the games. I've enjoyed some of the rest, but whereas Halo games were best of class, other Halo content, with some notable exceptions, were not best of class novels, short stories, videos, what have you.

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Bigger than Halo?

by narcogen ⌂ @, Andover, Massachusetts, Friday, August 01, 2014, 19:16 (2639 days ago) @ Kermit

From this week's BWU:

"Our favorite achievement is the concurrency statistic. At its peak, the Destiny Beta became the most simultaneously played Bungie game of all time. There were more people online at the same time to play Destiny than any other game in our history. The Beta was more played than even final versions of previous Bungie games."

None of that, of course, guarantees that Destiny will be bigger than Halo, but it's also hard to look at the Beta statistics and say, "well, this isn't going to be as big as Halo."

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Bigger than Halo?

by Cody Miller @, Music of the Spheres - Never Forgot, Saturday, August 02, 2014, 17:12 (2638 days ago) @ narcogen

From this week's BWU:

"Our favorite achievement is the concurrency statistic. At its peak, the Destiny Beta became the most simultaneously played Bungie game of all time. There were more people online at the same time to play Destiny than any other game in our history. The Beta was more played than even final versions of previous Bungie games."

None of that, of course, guarantees that Destiny will be bigger than Halo, but it's also hard to look at the Beta statistics and say, "well, this isn't going to be as big as Halo."

Bigger in terms of numbers. And in gigabytes.

But what about bigger in terms of design influence? Halo was hugely influential in pushing the standards for console first person shooters. Destiny doesn't really feel to do that so much, but rather it mishmashes existing systems.

What about bigger in terms of cultural influence?

What about bigger in terms of page size and number of articles on the applicable .isnotcanon.net?

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Bigger than Halo?

by DaDerga, Baile Átha Cliath, Saturday, August 02, 2014, 18:00 (2638 days ago) @ Cody Miller

But what about bigger in terms of design influence? Halo was hugely influential in pushing the standards for console first person shooters. Destiny doesn't really feel to do that so much, but rather it mishmashes existing systems.

What about bigger in terms of cultural influence?

I would imagine that depends on how successful Destiny is in creating and defining what they intend by "Shared-World Shooter". If they succeed and it truly is a new experience I would say yes, if not then...?
Personal satisfaction aside, as it stands, hard to call,

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Bigger than Halo?

by narcogen ⌂ @, Andover, Massachusetts, Saturday, August 02, 2014, 18:31 (2638 days ago) @ Cody Miller


Bigger in terms of numbers. And in gigabytes.

But what about bigger in terms of design influence? Halo was hugely influential in pushing the standards for console first person shooters. Destiny doesn't really feel to do that so much, but rather it mishmashes existing systems.

What about bigger in terms of cultural influence?

One usually leads to the other-- at least insofar as if it sells extremely well, lots of publishers will demand that developers copy it, or at least portions of it.

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