Armchair Speculation Pt 1

by narcogen , Andover, Massachusetts, Wednesday, February 27, 2013, 21:21 (4075 days ago) @ Cody Miller

There must be something I am not seeing.

First, the decision to require an internet connection cuts out literally 75% of the people who own current gen consoles. I am not kidding, because as of last year, I believe it was the NPD that said 75% of current gen game consoles are never taken online. That's a huge chunk of potential players that are out of the picture. Destiny has been in development for how long? I have no doubt it's going to be 100+ million. How are enough people going to buy it?!

Citation? The nearest figure I see is the ratio between XBL subscribers and total 360 sales, which is about 50/50.

http://www.statisticbrain.com/xbox-statistics/

For Xbox 360, it's likely the requirement won't mean much more for users than "logged into XBL"-- similar to what's required for owners of XBLA titles linked to a certain account, which is just about anyone who's had to replace an out of warranty 360 and redownload their purchases.

My internet is crap, but my 360 still logs into XBL at startup and usually manages to stay connected. If Destiny's servers are smart, they'll let me play solo and not force anyone into my laggy game, and it was recently confirmed that you can play solo.

So the question is how much overlap is there between the attach rate for a Bungie shooter on the 360, and the conversion rate or XBL on the 360. Then again, from Bungie's perspective, the online populations of both the 360 and the PS3 combined might very well equal their usual shooter population.

In fact, not being on the PlayStation in the last 2 generations probably had a much larger effect on the potential player base for a Bungie game than an online requirement across 4-5 platforms (Xbox 360, Durango, PS3, PS4, PC) will have on Destiny. And if Bungie is being smart, their infrastructure will have been built to support all those platforms from the start, plus mobile interaction. Parsons has practically said as much already.

Second, since they've already decided to go with the always connected model, not making a PC version seems insane.

They probably will. I'd venture to guess that the issues involved in making a title cross-platform between the 360 and the PS3 and/or the Xbox 720 and the PS4 dwarf those involved in making a PC port from any of the above. (Although PS4-PC is obviously going to be easier than it was with PS3.)

The problem is that MS investment in the Xbox essentially leaves PC gaming without a stakeholder. Bungie's history with MS meant they got first dibs, but only for platforms that are officially announced: so that means Xbox 360, confirmed at the first reveal. As a third party, MS is not going to let Bungie steal their thunder by confirming the Durango at the Destiny reveal.

Bungie being new to Sony's ecosystem, and Sony announcing the PS4 first, meant they got the first next-gen announcement, along with the "exclusive content" thing tacked on to sweeten the deal.

MS hasn't announced the next Xbox yet, and they're the closest thing that PC gaming has to a stakeholder. So there's no way that Bungie is going to confirm a PC release before they confirm a Durango release, especially since there's probably as much or more overlap there than anywhere else.

You have China and South Korea, both of which are huge markets for MMO or 'Shared World' games as Bungie wants to call it. Several MMOFPS games are popular in Korea. Software piracy is pretty much non existent for these types of games due to the connection requirement, and thus since they are popular, they are pretty lucrative. Console gaming is not popular in Korea, and I believe consoles can;t even be sold in China, so keeping the game console only seems maddening unless for some reason they don't think they can get this market.

I doubt China or Korea have been significant markets for Bungie in the past, just as Japan has not. While it would certainly be wise to target those markets, it would be risky to make significant investments based on expectations in those markets. Given Bungie's narrow focus on action, I'd guess that their take on the MMOFPS will lack may of the elements that appeal to gamers in those markets.

That said, I think there will be a PC version. It's just a very, very open question how well that version will do in those three markets. It's quite likely they will have content issues there, as WoW has had in China for quite some time.