We need a "Jump to Conclusions Mat"

by narcogen , Andover, Massachusetts, Friday, May 24, 2013, 23:53 (4199 days ago) @ Cody Miller

Well now that would be a strong conclusion with an incorrect premise. That's... not really better.

(Well, the rain one is incorrect. The premise of the game one isn't necessarily incorrect, but it isn't necessarily correct either, so...)

An argument can be perfectly valid without being sound.

If Santa Clause doesn't exist, then I'm a reindeer.
Santa Clause doesn't exist.
Therefore I'm a reindeer.

That's a logically valid argument. So is the argument I made regarding rain.

Yes, but one of your premises was false. Rain is NOT the only way for a sidewalk to get wet. That's the entire point of that example. rain means the sidewalk MUST be wet because there's no reasonable scenario that prevents that consequence, whereas a number of scenarios can create a wet sidewalk: open fireplugs, people washing cars, etc. That's not the same as your argument being unsound, but it does invalidate your conclusion.

At any rate...

Still, I agree with you. It certainly looks to me like what they're going to do is require installation, link installs to profiles, and use the Internet connection to invalidate previous installs following a sanctioned sale.

That means the Xbone has to connect often enough to make sure that you can't install a game and continue using that install after you've sold it.

It means that sales can only go through sanctioned channels. Presumably MS is partnering with GameStop on this because they don't want war with retailers. Fine, so MS has no cojones. No surprise there. (If Apple had done the same thing with the iTunes Music Store, there would be no downloads, and you'd be going to a bricks and mortar record shop to fill an iPod up with DRM protected AAC tracks.)

When a 2nd person pops in a previously sold Xbone game disc, the system has to have some way of knowing that this isn't a friend's console you're just logging into, but the new owner of that disc. They can't trust the old owner to voluntarily give up their rights to the game if the sale is made directly between the two parties. Somebody might take the cash, hand over the disc, and fail to give up the rights. The new buyer gets screwed, the seller gets to keep the game and the money.

Likewise, you can't just trust the new person with the disc to pay the fee and install the game. What if the disc was stolen? What if an unaware Xbone owner lent a game disc to a friend, not knowing how the system works? If you just invalidate all old installs when a disc is installed on a new console, then MS is essentially supporting theft.

The only way to do this is with a trusted third party. MS could do this by providing their own online market as part of XBL; allowing someone to invalidate their install in exchange for store credit, and accepting payment from the buyer and permitting a download, or providing a prepaid mailer to the original owner to forward the game disc. (That could get wonky.) MS would be becoming the Ebay of used Xbox discs. MS gets to control the system, take their cut, and give developers a share of used game sales that they currently don't have.

That's a lot to take on, though, and it's fraught with possibilities for abuse and incompetence. So I think it's likely they'll anoint the current market leader in used sales (GameStop) and let them handle it the way they always have; there will just be extra steps. When they buy a used Xbone disc, they'll have to have some way of invalidating the old installs. Probably you'll have to either login to a terminal at GameStop to authorize that. They'll do the same when they sell a used title, linking that title to the gamertag of the new owner.

Of course, if they don't add the component necessary to let sellers and buyers login to their profiles on-site, then it means that every extant copy of every installed Xbone game in the wild is open to the vagaries of abuse by GameStop employees. That doesn't sound good to me.