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More Numbers (Destiny)

by Robot Chickens, Thursday, May 27, 2021, 15:11 (116 days ago) @ CruelLEGACEY
edited by Robot Chickens, Thursday, May 27, 2021, 15:14

Same here. I mean, the current Boss damage overlord is Anarchy, which has a very similar backstory to Eyes of Tomorrow.

Tricky thing is, in many ways, I prefer Raid exotics being acquired through random drops over a time-consuming quest, like Divinity. I just think bad luck protection needs to a) exist, b) actually work, and c) be tuned far more aggressively than it is right now. I see nothing wrong with guaranteeing the raid exotic by your 10th or 15th looted completion. The fact that people are still missing raid exotics after 50+ Looted completions is frankly insane, and should not be possible IMO.

Destiny is funny with RNG. Claude and I both have experiences are improbable for us both to have. With Iron Banner, after completing the quest, we have both had all 4 bounties drop in the kinetic slot. 8 potential slots. 4 Bounties.

(1/8)^4 = 1/4096 = 0.024 % chance you have bad luck

or

4095/4096 = 99.976 % chance you have good luck.

Now, that's the likelihood of it happening on any given Iron Banner. Assuming IB happens once a month and you've played since D2 started. That's roughly 45 IBs. Getting good luck 45 times in a row should should happen less frequently.

The math is (4095/4096)^45 = 98.907 % for escaping this fate.

Roughly 1.0927 % of frequent players should see this happen.

For it to happen to 2 people casually? Well that makes the numbers a little more funny, but 2 people in our clan of 100 (most who don't play that much) are part of the 1% club.


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