Drops are definitely troublesome this time around. (Destiny)

by Kahzgul, Monday, October 16, 2017, 17:33 (2396 days ago) @ Cody Miller

Is this not simple math? Couldn't a cursory glance at drop rates and expected games played give you a really good idea at what your players can expect?

It's like, if a player plays X games, they will have Y chance at getting shit. Oh, looks like we should change or loot algorithm.

I mean, casinos have this figured completely out. This seems like a really simple problem to avoid.

Bungie doesn't want you to get all of the gear, because then you stop chasing the dragon. So they ensure you *can't* get all of the gear, which keeps the playlists populated well past people getting 10 packages.

If everyone who went to Vegas lost all the time, nobody would gamble. So, you sometimes win. But not enough so that the casinos lose money. The formula has been figured out by this point…

Right. The odds are good that you get 1-3 pieces of gear in your first 10 packages, but bad enough that you need to play for about 30ish packages to get them all, right?

I really don't know. I haven't played Iron banner, but some folks on reddit are saying they went through 30 packages with no armor at all being awarded.

That's pretty terrible. Bungie should really follow the Path of Exile setup for % chance to happen events, which is that the chance increases by a like percentage every time the event doesn't happen. So if you have a 10% chance to get a rare item, instead of having any possibility of an absurd streak of never getting rare items, if you don't get a rare on your first roll, the second roll is 20%, the third is 30%, all the way until it's guaranteed. If, at any point, you get a rare, then the rate resets back to the initial 10% value and the process starts over. The net result is actually a > 10% chance at rares, but you're guaranteed to get a rare *at minimum* 10% of the time, rather than Bungie's current minimum of never.